Republican: The GOP would suffer for many years if Trump were to become the nominee. To say it would be disastrous for the Party would be an understatement.
NPA/Other: Winner take all rules pushed by Jeb/Rubio end up benefiting TRUMP. Will be #Yuge
Democrat: It has been said that "third party candidates are like bees: once they sting, they die." This will be no different, although it will help Hillary become President in 2016
Dem: Recent polls show both bush and rubio winning v clinton ,kasich will top her as soon as his name id rises, these are where the republican nominee will come, the most important thing for republicans is to defeat clinton
Rep: Donald trump is the product of summertime bored part-time voters. He will fade as the electorate engages and will soon enough join the ranks of Hermain Cain and other "outsiders" who were never going to be.
Dem: "I hate this poll! I have no idea and anyone who says they do is full of it. The lanes are too crowded on the R side and Hillary will have a clean shot unless there is something to this email thing that disables her. If Trump wins or runs as a third party the D wins no matter. Hang on!"
Rep: Donald Trump is one Howard Dean-like yell away from being an after thought. When people finish their summer vacations, get the kids back in school, and begin really engaging, they'll wake-up to realize that running our country isn't a weekly reality show. Trump is the comic relief for this election. Once he drops in the polls, he'll be out the door. See Atlantic City casinos for past history.
Dem: "There is no doubt that John Kasich is mounting the quite blockbuster campaign that will debut with full strength in Iowa and New Hampshire. We all remember how John McCain was thought to be out of the running the summer of 2007 and he quickly gained momentum in the primary process. I see Kasich going through a similar process. For Democrats, a Kasich-Rubio ticket could be very troubling. It will without a doubt reconfingure the electoral math since Rubio can make a play in Florida, Nevada adn Colorado. Kasich puts Ohio in play. So with Labor Day fast approaching, it's off to the races."
Rep: Everyday that goes by I'm more convinced that Donald Trump is the Kim Kardasian of politics. - what a disaster to our party.
Dem: I have no confidence in the voters anymore. This is going to be a crap shoot. My answers are nothing more than wishful thinking
Dem: The only way Trump may win the Florida primary is Rubio and Jeb splitting the primary vote.
Rep: 2016 race certainly getting stranger by the day - but only Jeb has the resources & campaign organization to wait out the Trump bubble until in bursts. Trump currently the anti-Bush option - he is allowing no one else to grab that mantle with any certainty - that helps Jeb long term. End of the day Jeb emerges and wins a very tough fight for the nomination. Followed by an even tougher fight in the fall that will also see him prevail. PS: having said all that -- the Trump Bubble is certainly not going to burst as early as many of us expected -- he is here for awhile.
Dem: Get ready for political de ja vu - a Bush, a Clinton, and a third party eccentric rich guy. Cue Twilight Zone music...
Rep: I think Trump likes the publicity and someone listening to his nonsensical ravings. At some point though he will find out he has been hemorrhaging money and he will exit the race.
Rep: No one should ever attempt to make a living prognosticating about future actions of Donald Trump. Its a sure way to the poorhouse.
NPA/Other: Only twice before has this country experienced a phenomenon like Trump. The first was Andrew Jackson and the second was Ronald Reagan. He's for real and he's going all the way.
Rep: I hope and pray that my fellow Republican voters start to step back from the Trump hysteria. I have to believe they will because the path to 270 for Republicans is difficult at best and without Florida in the GOP column nearly impossible. Trump will not be the nominee, but how much damage is done remains to be seen.
Dem: The Republican nomination has become a reality show. Trump is a contestant and sometimes host. Eventually the establishment Republicans will step in and say "you are fired."
Rep: We have entered the age of reality TV meets corporate non politician politics and the three PAC of Trump, Carson and Carly are sucking the bandwidth from the current or former electeds running for office.
Dem: I went with the old adage that the candidate with the most money wins. It is rarely wrong. I then assumed that Trump would not spend a billion dollars - he is loving the ride but ultimately I think he loves his money more.
Dem: Trump has nothing to lose by taking this all the way until Election Day. I think he has a shot at the nomination but in the end doesn't get it. He runs third party against two legacy candidates and does the best of any third party since Perot.
Rep: Trump will fade as the primaries get closer and Republican voters get more serious about the election.
Rep: I truly believe Donald Trump leading the Republican candidates at this moment is telling of the dissatisfaction amongst the Republican voting block. While I do not believe he will win the Republican nomination, I do believe he will run as a third party candidate and in turn hurt the Republican nominee with vote split.
Dem: Even though Hillary Clinton would be a better President and I plan to work as hard for her as possible, I believe Republicans have had eight years of getting all rabid about "liberal Democrats", and have so much vitriol and venom in them that this will be a vicious, savage race that they will win. That's ok. We have the ACA and gay marriage and that's Hope and Change to me. PS - Democrats will sweep in the 2018 mid-term elections so we'll be back in balance. By then, even the R's will understand that climate change is reversable.
Rep: Trump is rich, but cheap. And he's crazy but not stupid. Won't spend the money on impossible mission of running as 3rd Party.
Dem: I could only dream of a 2016 GOP ticket with Donald Trump at the top, but unfortunately I don't think that is going to be a reality. I have faith that at some point, GOP voters will wake up and realize they don't want someone who will make a mockery of the Presidency at the top of their ticket.
Rep: In the hot summer months in the year before the election, voters aren't really paying that much attention to the race. Most voters wouldn't be able to name all the Republican nominees (or even 10 of them), so Trump continues to stand out due to his universal name recognition. (I say this because I polled my mother, a white senior citizen registered Republican disinterested in insider politics, who said she'd vote for Trump. When I asked why, she said because he's the only guy she hears about all the time and actually knows, and she likes his immigration talk.) Sure, Trump's lead has lasted longer than most predicted, but this is a Presidential race unlike that which most predicted. It does seem that Trump is taking this seriously, and assuming he doesn't go down the drain before the end of the year and drop out (like a Herman Cain), I do think that he will do what it takes to get on the ballot in all 50 states and at least make it through the first month of primaries. Still, Jeb Bush's huge financial lead should make him the nominee once he starts unleashing the pain against his opponents when the time is right. As far as a Trump third party run - I definitely think it's possible since Trump's supporters are not really Republican party loyalists and Trump has a yuge ego (pun intended)...and a third party run will turn the election over to Hillary.
Rep: Trump is doing what he always does -- dividing the party. He will drop out and get more TV coverage and then go back to making money.
Rep: The only thing more certain than Donald Trump having a bad hair day tomorrow is that his poll numbers will start to plunge as soon as next year's Election Day voters start paying attention.
Rep: I keep waiting, with heightened, nervous anticipation, for the Trump flame out...but it hasn't happened yet. He's hit a nerve, causing a reflex reaction from some...and pain for those of us who identify with our party...not a subset thereof.
Rep: Trump is making the prototypical, self-funder mistakes. He's paying his bills week to week vs. a strategic budget, he seems to be thumbing his nose at ballot-access rules, and is foregoing professional staff for organizing, and makes contradictory statements depending on the day. He should be utilizing professional staff to register voters, build volunteer databases and capturing the momentum from this moment in time. He may be the exception, but this opportunity is unlikely to last forever....My prediction is he fails to make the ballot in nearly two dozen states and uses that as his excuse to run third party because the establishment (50 different state election laws) are stacked against him.
Rep: I think the debates will ultimately unwind Trump. At some point, you must become specific on your position on public policy issues, not just fire bullets. In 2002, when Jeb Bush and Bill McBride were virtually tied going into the last debate, McBride ( God rest his soul ) could not articulate his position on how he would pay for his plan to improve schools in Florida. The race was over that night.
Rep: Donald Trump is a total loser.
Dem: Marco remains in the strong position of being the guy all republicans like, even if they aren't there yet. Republicans should nominate Kasich, but they won't. If God has a sense of humor, trump will be the nominee....Clinton is off her game. She's reinforcing all of the things people don't like about her. It's not time to eject yet, but I'd start finding the button.
Dem: We won't be that lucky. Trump hates to lose and there is no path to win as a 3rd party candidate.
Dem: It is amazing that Trump has maintained his lead, and it goes to show just how frustrated the public is with the "establishment" candidates. Once the Republican field starts shrinking though, the supporters of those that can't make the long haul will go to Bush or Rubio or Walker. I remain convinced that Trump has a definitive ceiling. It is just a little higher than most of us expected.
Rep: I pulled every one of these answers out of my special Wishful Thinking Hat. We are deep into Terra Incognita, and there be monsters here.
Rep: Trump is a one-issue candidate, and there is only so much political benefit one can squeeze out of a single issue.
Dem: The longer Trump stays in the race the larger the payday will be when he makes the deal on his next TV enterprise.
Rep: Donald Trump is the Icarus of the 2016 Republican field. His hubris loves that he's flying this close to the sun, but like many before him, it will all come crashing down at some point.
Rep: Trump's ego will have him continue to threaten a third party run throughout this campaign but actually sustaining one will require even more of his personal cash than running as a Republican. Plus, there are a number of states where he will have legal problems getting on the ballot. The idea of spoiling the race for the GOP will likely be attractive but if there is truly no path to victory (plus all the money he would have to spend) will be strong motivators for him to stay on the sidelines....I hope.
Rep: So much for the best Republican field in a generation. We're about to be led over the cliff by billionaire fraud with a dead lemur stapled to his head.
Dem: Trump is a bigger threat to win the Primary than most originally thought. However, with Bush's fundraising, he is still a strong choice to win the Florida primary. Trump may well collapse when we get to actual elections and his ground game isn't as strong. Bush is fading now but has a large war chest to turn that around...However, I have not ruled out Trump winning the nomination....Walker is fading while Rubio is struggling to gain steam,even after a good debate showing....Clinton's is still favored to win it all in the General. However, I expect a close election.
Dem: Trump is an incendiary,unapologetic misogynist and racist who has no interest in being reasonable, collegial, or open to ideas from others. He is unelectable and will continue to damage the Republican Party from within until he shifts to a third party campaign after he loses the Republican nomination, where he will draw votes away from Bush, who will be the Republican nominee. Hillary's campaign (or what is being called a campaign)is mired in questions of integrity and arrogance (email scandal,etc.) which leaves the door open for Biden, whom many will see as an unlikely prospect but who connects well with a broad range of voters. Please save this and read it the day after the election!
Rep: 2016 is the year of the outsider. This is why Trump and Sanders are surging and Hillary and Jeb are flailing. I am not sure the surgers have any staying power, nor am I sure the flail ears can recover. That provides a great opportunity for someone like Kasich. Few know him, so he is perceived as an outsider even though he has been in politics for decades.
I don't see Trump taking the third party route. He would have to spend several hundred million dollars to run, which would be hard to justify as a sound business decision. Second, he would have to meet the requirements of each of the 50 states, something more difficult with each passing day. Finally, his run would always be compared to Perot, who won 20% of the vote in 1992. If Trump garners less than 20%, he will be label a loser and we know how Trump feels about losers.
Rep: Trump is a bloated ego with a sphincter at both ends. He plays to the worst in everyone. People will tire of his antics and make the right choice in the voting booth.
Dem: Trump has never enjoyed himself more. Once the republicans eliminate him, his ego won't allow him to quit.
Rep: Trump's star, while burning bright today, will have long since been extinguished by the time the Florida primary rolls around.
Rep: Trump is like The Bachelotte. Everyone wants to watch the show but you don't want to give it an Emmy. People just want to be entertained right now.
NPA/Other: Unlike Ronald Reagan, insurgent Donald Trump’s anti-establishment candidacy will fade. Recall the R presidential campaigns of liberal John Anderson in 1980, conservative Pat Buchanan in 1992 and ‘96, businessman Steve Forbes in 2000 and Cong. Michele Bachmann in 2012. For Trump, the improvisational nature of the outspoken billionaire’s campaign and concern by tradition bound mainstream R primary voters about his electability and temperament will eventually boost the political fortunes of establishment R candidates. Top of mind are Ohio Gov. John Kasich and especially Marco Rubio, the articulate Senator from Fla.
Rep: At some point there may be Trump fatigue and someone like Kasich might become the serious nominee but Trump has unearthed an optimism in Republican voters
Rep: Money does, and will, talk. Especially if there is a story to tell.
Dem: Trump is a two edged sword. He's brought attention to the corruption of big money in the presidential election process but he's also removed any semblance of integrity or credibility associated with the race for the highest office in that land. That should bother us as Americans. It really should. I don't care that he's really a Klansman on blast, afraid of people of color. But I do care that the presidential contest has been compromised and minimized by a narcissistic carnival barker with a few billion dollars. As for Hillary's emails roughly %80 of Democrats don't care. She will likely be the first woman president. Amen
Rep: Looks less likely that Jeb will be able to buy primary
Dem: GOP donors will double down on Jeb to ensure he crosses (limps) across the finish line.
Dem: The RPOF decision to go "winner take all" to help a Florida favorite son seems to have gone from favor to threat, likely to help Trump capture delegates as Bush and Rubio split the sane GOP vote in the primary, allowing Trump to squeeze past both with a plurality.
Rep: Let's see:Rick Wilson spent the last few weeks baiting Trump till he finally paid attention and then somehow The Rick ended up attacking Ann Coulter and The Donald for trafficking anal sex. So what do any of us really know this long hot summer?
Dem: if trump runs Hillary wins. If not jump ball
Rep: Trump may run as 3rd party but will depend on how he falls out in the primary.
Dem: I would register as a Transpartisan if I could and still vote in primaries. Both parties take the same money so I have issues with both. And on the other, my opinion might change ..... but in this moment here you have it.
Rep: Trump will get out soon
Dem: Trump is putting on one hell of a show.
Rep: If he is treated fairly.. He'll stay a Republican and help us win...If we treat him poorly... Shame on us...
Rep: The "Donald's" support is a mile wide and an inch deep - ultimately, he will peak and begin a decline, but not before he pulls the candidates more to the right.
Rep: When answering that I believe Jeb will win the White House, I am putting a LOT of faith in the republican electorate to vote intelligently, maturely and rationally. Sadly, that's my biggest worry.
Rep: Trump is playing to the audience. He is attempting to fracture the GOP. He supported TARP, STIMULUS and the AUTO BAIL OUT, praises still, Single Payer and refuses to give details on what he would replace ObamaCare with...he is appealing to the masses on Illegal Immigration, while being a very real and serious issue, it should not be demagogued...it should be handled seriously
Dem: Ballot access will be to difficult for Trump to run as an independent. I still believe that once all the dust settles the Republicans will nominate the establishment candidate. At the end of the day they want back in the White House so badly they're going to pick the candidate they believe gives them the best chance. He also has the money to stay for the long haul if he stumbles a little in IA or NH. Florida gives him the fire wall he needs to outlast everyone else - assuming he wins Florida.
Dem: Republicans need to come to terms with the fact that Trump is in it for the long haul. He now believes he can win will try to control his major gaffes. Trump may not fade away after all, which should scare Republicans greatly.
NPA/Other: Trump will be in it to the end on the R side. Whoever wins Florida between Bush and Rubio will win the nomination for the simple reason that no one else really comes to mind as a great alternative to Trump. This will be an ugly drawn out process for the Rs. Assuming Hillary stays out of legal peril, she wins the nomination easily and probably wins the presidency because the Rs will so divided.
Dem: I reserve the right to modify my 2016 predictions at will as I could just as easily answered "hell if I know." Donald Trump has that effect on national politics.
Rep: I am seeing the start of the "Trump effect". Even in local races, I am seeing small audiences already gravitate towards the candidate who isn't scripted and says what they think.
Rep: Donald Trump is one Howard Dean-like yell away from being an after thought. When people finish their summer vacations, get the kids back in school, and begin really engaging, they'll wake-up to realize that running our country isn't a weekly reality show. Trump is the comic relief for this election. Once he drops in the polls, he'll be out the door. See Atlantic City casinos for past history.
Rep: I am not sure if Trump will be on the March 15 ballot. I was only given a yes or no option. If he doesn't have victories in the early primaries then he may be off on his own by Florida Primary March 15....Its a long way between now and Iowa & New Hampshire.
Rep: Even though many of them are my friends, I will admit that it's fun watching the daily meltdowns from within the consultant class over Teflon Trump's inability to bleed when cut.
This month's Florida Insiders:
Bob Poe, Brian Ballard, Aubrey Jewett, Brian Crowley, Hayden Dempsey, Rich Heffley, Barry Edwards, Kevin Cate, Eric Jotkoff, Dan Gelber, Christian Ulvert, Bernie Campbell, Ben Pollara, Kirk Pepper, Steve Uhlfelder, Pat Neal, Marion Hammer, Richard Swann, Gus Corbella, Roger Stone, Cory Tilley, Susannah Randolph, Lucy Morgan, Rich Ramos, Bill Lee, Frank Mirabella, Jason Rosenberg, Alex Patton, Kathy Mears, Mitch Ceasar, Poly Marante, Donald Hinkle, Christina Johnson, John Stemberger, Eric Johnson, Paul Mitchell, Screven Watson, Jack Funari, Stephanie Kunkel, Darrick McGhee, Dave Aronberg, Gretchen Picotte, Stephen Shiver, April Salter, Jeff Wright, Ana Navarro, Nancy Watkins, Ashley Walker, Andrew Gillum, Richard DeNapoli, Marc Reichelderfer, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Ryan Duffy, Jamie Wilson, Javier Manjerres, Stephen Bittel, Allan Bense, Steven Schale, Lanny Wiles, Jill Chamberlin, Steve Vancore, Steve Schale, Scott Arceneaux, Mike Fasano, Joe Perry, Mac Stipanovich, Ryan Tyson, Stafford Jones, Christian Camara, Brad Coker, James Harris, Peter Antonacci, Mark Ferulo, Brad Herold, Bob Graham, Sarah Rumpf, Jeff Johnson, Rick Wilson, Pablo Diaz, Rodney Barreto, Wayne Bertsch, Matthew Isbell, John French, Jason Unger, Michael Albetta, Jim Rimes, Chris Dorworth, Tom Scarritt, Darryl Paulson, Nancy McGowan, Karen Unger, Bud Shorstein, Sally Bradshaw, Mike Hanna, Zach Zachariah, Nick Hansen, Donna Arduin, Tom Tillison, Ana Cruz, Marty Fiorentino, Husein Cumber, Tami Fillyaw, Greg Truax, Paula Dockery, Bob Sparks, Kevin King, Gayne Andrews, Doc Dockery, Susie Wiles, Alan Clendenin, Ron Gunzberger, David Johnson, Amber Stoner, Jon Mills, John Morgan, Robert Coker, Susan Glickman, Brett Doster, Cynthia Henderson, Damien Filer, Al Cardenas, Mike Hightower, Richard Gentry, Ryan Wiggins, Nikki Lowrey, Mike Hamby, Justin Day, Tom Gaitens, John Wehrung, Greg Turbeville, Josh Geise, Gay Gaines, Marty Fiorentino, Jason Altmire, Andrew Weinstein, Seth McKee, Matthew Corrigan, Kelly Cohen, Jason Roth, Henry Kelley, David Bishop, Mark Zubaly, Oscar Anderson, Ron Bilbao, Christian Ziegler, Clarence Mckee.
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NPA/Other: Winner take all rules pushed by Jeb/Rubio end up benefiting TRUMP. Will be #Yuge
Democrat: It has been said that "third party candidates are like bees: once they sting, they die." This will be no different, although it will help Hillary become President in 2016
Dem: Recent polls show both bush and rubio winning v clinton ,kasich will top her as soon as his name id rises, these are where the republican nominee will come, the most important thing for republicans is to defeat clinton
Rep: Donald trump is the product of summertime bored part-time voters. He will fade as the electorate engages and will soon enough join the ranks of Hermain Cain and other "outsiders" who were never going to be.
Dem: "I hate this poll! I have no idea and anyone who says they do is full of it. The lanes are too crowded on the R side and Hillary will have a clean shot unless there is something to this email thing that disables her. If Trump wins or runs as a third party the D wins no matter. Hang on!"
Rep: Donald Trump is one Howard Dean-like yell away from being an after thought. When people finish their summer vacations, get the kids back in school, and begin really engaging, they'll wake-up to realize that running our country isn't a weekly reality show. Trump is the comic relief for this election. Once he drops in the polls, he'll be out the door. See Atlantic City casinos for past history.
Dem: "There is no doubt that John Kasich is mounting the quite blockbuster campaign that will debut with full strength in Iowa and New Hampshire. We all remember how John McCain was thought to be out of the running the summer of 2007 and he quickly gained momentum in the primary process. I see Kasich going through a similar process. For Democrats, a Kasich-Rubio ticket could be very troubling. It will without a doubt reconfingure the electoral math since Rubio can make a play in Florida, Nevada adn Colorado. Kasich puts Ohio in play. So with Labor Day fast approaching, it's off to the races."
Rep: Everyday that goes by I'm more convinced that Donald Trump is the Kim Kardasian of politics. - what a disaster to our party.
Dem: I have no confidence in the voters anymore. This is going to be a crap shoot. My answers are nothing more than wishful thinking
Dem: The only way Trump may win the Florida primary is Rubio and Jeb splitting the primary vote.
Rep: 2016 race certainly getting stranger by the day - but only Jeb has the resources & campaign organization to wait out the Trump bubble until in bursts. Trump currently the anti-Bush option - he is allowing no one else to grab that mantle with any certainty - that helps Jeb long term. End of the day Jeb emerges and wins a very tough fight for the nomination. Followed by an even tougher fight in the fall that will also see him prevail. PS: having said all that -- the Trump Bubble is certainly not going to burst as early as many of us expected -- he is here for awhile.
Dem: Get ready for political de ja vu - a Bush, a Clinton, and a third party eccentric rich guy. Cue Twilight Zone music...
Rep: I think Trump likes the publicity and someone listening to his nonsensical ravings. At some point though he will find out he has been hemorrhaging money and he will exit the race.
Rep: No one should ever attempt to make a living prognosticating about future actions of Donald Trump. Its a sure way to the poorhouse.
NPA/Other: Only twice before has this country experienced a phenomenon like Trump. The first was Andrew Jackson and the second was Ronald Reagan. He's for real and he's going all the way.
Rep: I hope and pray that my fellow Republican voters start to step back from the Trump hysteria. I have to believe they will because the path to 270 for Republicans is difficult at best and without Florida in the GOP column nearly impossible. Trump will not be the nominee, but how much damage is done remains to be seen.
Dem: The Republican nomination has become a reality show. Trump is a contestant and sometimes host. Eventually the establishment Republicans will step in and say "you are fired."
Rep: We have entered the age of reality TV meets corporate non politician politics and the three PAC of Trump, Carson and Carly are sucking the bandwidth from the current or former electeds running for office.
Dem: I went with the old adage that the candidate with the most money wins. It is rarely wrong. I then assumed that Trump would not spend a billion dollars - he is loving the ride but ultimately I think he loves his money more.
Dem: Trump has nothing to lose by taking this all the way until Election Day. I think he has a shot at the nomination but in the end doesn't get it. He runs third party against two legacy candidates and does the best of any third party since Perot.
Rep: Trump will fade as the primaries get closer and Republican voters get more serious about the election.
Rep: I truly believe Donald Trump leading the Republican candidates at this moment is telling of the dissatisfaction amongst the Republican voting block. While I do not believe he will win the Republican nomination, I do believe he will run as a third party candidate and in turn hurt the Republican nominee with vote split.
Dem: Even though Hillary Clinton would be a better President and I plan to work as hard for her as possible, I believe Republicans have had eight years of getting all rabid about "liberal Democrats", and have so much vitriol and venom in them that this will be a vicious, savage race that they will win. That's ok. We have the ACA and gay marriage and that's Hope and Change to me. PS - Democrats will sweep in the 2018 mid-term elections so we'll be back in balance. By then, even the R's will understand that climate change is reversable.
Rep: Trump is rich, but cheap. And he's crazy but not stupid. Won't spend the money on impossible mission of running as 3rd Party.
Dem: I could only dream of a 2016 GOP ticket with Donald Trump at the top, but unfortunately I don't think that is going to be a reality. I have faith that at some point, GOP voters will wake up and realize they don't want someone who will make a mockery of the Presidency at the top of their ticket.
Rep: In the hot summer months in the year before the election, voters aren't really paying that much attention to the race. Most voters wouldn't be able to name all the Republican nominees (or even 10 of them), so Trump continues to stand out due to his universal name recognition. (I say this because I polled my mother, a white senior citizen registered Republican disinterested in insider politics, who said she'd vote for Trump. When I asked why, she said because he's the only guy she hears about all the time and actually knows, and she likes his immigration talk.) Sure, Trump's lead has lasted longer than most predicted, but this is a Presidential race unlike that which most predicted. It does seem that Trump is taking this seriously, and assuming he doesn't go down the drain before the end of the year and drop out (like a Herman Cain), I do think that he will do what it takes to get on the ballot in all 50 states and at least make it through the first month of primaries. Still, Jeb Bush's huge financial lead should make him the nominee once he starts unleashing the pain against his opponents when the time is right. As far as a Trump third party run - I definitely think it's possible since Trump's supporters are not really Republican party loyalists and Trump has a yuge ego (pun intended)...and a third party run will turn the election over to Hillary.
Rep: Trump is doing what he always does -- dividing the party. He will drop out and get more TV coverage and then go back to making money.
Rep: The only thing more certain than Donald Trump having a bad hair day tomorrow is that his poll numbers will start to plunge as soon as next year's Election Day voters start paying attention.
Rep: I keep waiting, with heightened, nervous anticipation, for the Trump flame out...but it hasn't happened yet. He's hit a nerve, causing a reflex reaction from some...and pain for those of us who identify with our party...not a subset thereof.
Rep: Trump is making the prototypical, self-funder mistakes. He's paying his bills week to week vs. a strategic budget, he seems to be thumbing his nose at ballot-access rules, and is foregoing professional staff for organizing, and makes contradictory statements depending on the day. He should be utilizing professional staff to register voters, build volunteer databases and capturing the momentum from this moment in time. He may be the exception, but this opportunity is unlikely to last forever....My prediction is he fails to make the ballot in nearly two dozen states and uses that as his excuse to run third party because the establishment (50 different state election laws) are stacked against him.
Rep: I think the debates will ultimately unwind Trump. At some point, you must become specific on your position on public policy issues, not just fire bullets. In 2002, when Jeb Bush and Bill McBride were virtually tied going into the last debate, McBride ( God rest his soul ) could not articulate his position on how he would pay for his plan to improve schools in Florida. The race was over that night.
Rep: Donald Trump is a total loser.
Dem: Marco remains in the strong position of being the guy all republicans like, even if they aren't there yet. Republicans should nominate Kasich, but they won't. If God has a sense of humor, trump will be the nominee....Clinton is off her game. She's reinforcing all of the things people don't like about her. It's not time to eject yet, but I'd start finding the button.
Dem: We won't be that lucky. Trump hates to lose and there is no path to win as a 3rd party candidate.
Dem: It is amazing that Trump has maintained his lead, and it goes to show just how frustrated the public is with the "establishment" candidates. Once the Republican field starts shrinking though, the supporters of those that can't make the long haul will go to Bush or Rubio or Walker. I remain convinced that Trump has a definitive ceiling. It is just a little higher than most of us expected.
Rep: I pulled every one of these answers out of my special Wishful Thinking Hat. We are deep into Terra Incognita, and there be monsters here.
Rep: Trump is a one-issue candidate, and there is only so much political benefit one can squeeze out of a single issue.
Dem: The longer Trump stays in the race the larger the payday will be when he makes the deal on his next TV enterprise.
Rep: Donald Trump is the Icarus of the 2016 Republican field. His hubris loves that he's flying this close to the sun, but like many before him, it will all come crashing down at some point.
Rep: Trump's ego will have him continue to threaten a third party run throughout this campaign but actually sustaining one will require even more of his personal cash than running as a Republican. Plus, there are a number of states where he will have legal problems getting on the ballot. The idea of spoiling the race for the GOP will likely be attractive but if there is truly no path to victory (plus all the money he would have to spend) will be strong motivators for him to stay on the sidelines....I hope.
Rep: So much for the best Republican field in a generation. We're about to be led over the cliff by billionaire fraud with a dead lemur stapled to his head.
Dem: Trump is a bigger threat to win the Primary than most originally thought. However, with Bush's fundraising, he is still a strong choice to win the Florida primary. Trump may well collapse when we get to actual elections and his ground game isn't as strong. Bush is fading now but has a large war chest to turn that around...However, I have not ruled out Trump winning the nomination....Walker is fading while Rubio is struggling to gain steam,even after a good debate showing....Clinton's is still favored to win it all in the General. However, I expect a close election.
Dem: Trump is an incendiary,unapologetic misogynist and racist who has no interest in being reasonable, collegial, or open to ideas from others. He is unelectable and will continue to damage the Republican Party from within until he shifts to a third party campaign after he loses the Republican nomination, where he will draw votes away from Bush, who will be the Republican nominee. Hillary's campaign (or what is being called a campaign)is mired in questions of integrity and arrogance (email scandal,etc.) which leaves the door open for Biden, whom many will see as an unlikely prospect but who connects well with a broad range of voters. Please save this and read it the day after the election!
Rep: 2016 is the year of the outsider. This is why Trump and Sanders are surging and Hillary and Jeb are flailing. I am not sure the surgers have any staying power, nor am I sure the flail ears can recover. That provides a great opportunity for someone like Kasich. Few know him, so he is perceived as an outsider even though he has been in politics for decades.
I don't see Trump taking the third party route. He would have to spend several hundred million dollars to run, which would be hard to justify as a sound business decision. Second, he would have to meet the requirements of each of the 50 states, something more difficult with each passing day. Finally, his run would always be compared to Perot, who won 20% of the vote in 1992. If Trump garners less than 20%, he will be label a loser and we know how Trump feels about losers.
Rep: Trump is a bloated ego with a sphincter at both ends. He plays to the worst in everyone. People will tire of his antics and make the right choice in the voting booth.
Dem: Trump has never enjoyed himself more. Once the republicans eliminate him, his ego won't allow him to quit.
Rep: Trump's star, while burning bright today, will have long since been extinguished by the time the Florida primary rolls around.
Rep: Trump is like The Bachelotte. Everyone wants to watch the show but you don't want to give it an Emmy. People just want to be entertained right now.
NPA/Other: Unlike Ronald Reagan, insurgent Donald Trump’s anti-establishment candidacy will fade. Recall the R presidential campaigns of liberal John Anderson in 1980, conservative Pat Buchanan in 1992 and ‘96, businessman Steve Forbes in 2000 and Cong. Michele Bachmann in 2012. For Trump, the improvisational nature of the outspoken billionaire’s campaign and concern by tradition bound mainstream R primary voters about his electability and temperament will eventually boost the political fortunes of establishment R candidates. Top of mind are Ohio Gov. John Kasich and especially Marco Rubio, the articulate Senator from Fla.
Rep: At some point there may be Trump fatigue and someone like Kasich might become the serious nominee but Trump has unearthed an optimism in Republican voters
Rep: Money does, and will, talk. Especially if there is a story to tell.
Dem: Trump is a two edged sword. He's brought attention to the corruption of big money in the presidential election process but he's also removed any semblance of integrity or credibility associated with the race for the highest office in that land. That should bother us as Americans. It really should. I don't care that he's really a Klansman on blast, afraid of people of color. But I do care that the presidential contest has been compromised and minimized by a narcissistic carnival barker with a few billion dollars. As for Hillary's emails roughly %80 of Democrats don't care. She will likely be the first woman president. Amen
Rep: Looks less likely that Jeb will be able to buy primary
Dem: GOP donors will double down on Jeb to ensure he crosses (limps) across the finish line.
Dem: The RPOF decision to go "winner take all" to help a Florida favorite son seems to have gone from favor to threat, likely to help Trump capture delegates as Bush and Rubio split the sane GOP vote in the primary, allowing Trump to squeeze past both with a plurality.
Rep: Let's see:Rick Wilson spent the last few weeks baiting Trump till he finally paid attention and then somehow The Rick ended up attacking Ann Coulter and The Donald for trafficking anal sex. So what do any of us really know this long hot summer?
Dem: if trump runs Hillary wins. If not jump ball
Rep: Trump may run as 3rd party but will depend on how he falls out in the primary.
Dem: I would register as a Transpartisan if I could and still vote in primaries. Both parties take the same money so I have issues with both. And on the other, my opinion might change ..... but in this moment here you have it.
Rep: Trump will get out soon
Dem: Trump is putting on one hell of a show.
Rep: If he is treated fairly.. He'll stay a Republican and help us win...If we treat him poorly... Shame on us...
Rep: The "Donald's" support is a mile wide and an inch deep - ultimately, he will peak and begin a decline, but not before he pulls the candidates more to the right.
Rep: When answering that I believe Jeb will win the White House, I am putting a LOT of faith in the republican electorate to vote intelligently, maturely and rationally. Sadly, that's my biggest worry.
Rep: Trump is playing to the audience. He is attempting to fracture the GOP. He supported TARP, STIMULUS and the AUTO BAIL OUT, praises still, Single Payer and refuses to give details on what he would replace ObamaCare with...he is appealing to the masses on Illegal Immigration, while being a very real and serious issue, it should not be demagogued...it should be handled seriously
Dem: Ballot access will be to difficult for Trump to run as an independent. I still believe that once all the dust settles the Republicans will nominate the establishment candidate. At the end of the day they want back in the White House so badly they're going to pick the candidate they believe gives them the best chance. He also has the money to stay for the long haul if he stumbles a little in IA or NH. Florida gives him the fire wall he needs to outlast everyone else - assuming he wins Florida.
Dem: Republicans need to come to terms with the fact that Trump is in it for the long haul. He now believes he can win will try to control his major gaffes. Trump may not fade away after all, which should scare Republicans greatly.
NPA/Other: Trump will be in it to the end on the R side. Whoever wins Florida between Bush and Rubio will win the nomination for the simple reason that no one else really comes to mind as a great alternative to Trump. This will be an ugly drawn out process for the Rs. Assuming Hillary stays out of legal peril, she wins the nomination easily and probably wins the presidency because the Rs will so divided.
Dem: I reserve the right to modify my 2016 predictions at will as I could just as easily answered "hell if I know." Donald Trump has that effect on national politics.
Rep: I am seeing the start of the "Trump effect". Even in local races, I am seeing small audiences already gravitate towards the candidate who isn't scripted and says what they think.
Rep: Donald Trump is one Howard Dean-like yell away from being an after thought. When people finish their summer vacations, get the kids back in school, and begin really engaging, they'll wake-up to realize that running our country isn't a weekly reality show. Trump is the comic relief for this election. Once he drops in the polls, he'll be out the door. See Atlantic City casinos for past history.
Rep: I am not sure if Trump will be on the March 15 ballot. I was only given a yes or no option. If he doesn't have victories in the early primaries then he may be off on his own by Florida Primary March 15....Its a long way between now and Iowa & New Hampshire.
Rep: Even though many of them are my friends, I will admit that it's fun watching the daily meltdowns from within the consultant class over Teflon Trump's inability to bleed when cut.
This month's Florida Insiders:
Bob Poe, Brian Ballard, Aubrey Jewett, Brian Crowley, Hayden Dempsey, Rich Heffley, Barry Edwards, Kevin Cate, Eric Jotkoff, Dan Gelber, Christian Ulvert, Bernie Campbell, Ben Pollara, Kirk Pepper, Steve Uhlfelder, Pat Neal, Marion Hammer, Richard Swann, Gus Corbella, Roger Stone, Cory Tilley, Susannah Randolph, Lucy Morgan, Rich Ramos, Bill Lee, Frank Mirabella, Jason Rosenberg, Alex Patton, Kathy Mears, Mitch Ceasar, Poly Marante, Donald Hinkle, Christina Johnson, John Stemberger, Eric Johnson, Paul Mitchell, Screven Watson, Jack Funari, Stephanie Kunkel, Darrick McGhee, Dave Aronberg, Gretchen Picotte, Stephen Shiver, April Salter, Jeff Wright, Ana Navarro, Nancy Watkins, Ashley Walker, Andrew Gillum, Richard DeNapoli, Marc Reichelderfer, Alia Faraj-Johnson, Ryan Duffy, Jamie Wilson, Javier Manjerres, Stephen Bittel, Allan Bense, Steven Schale, Lanny Wiles, Jill Chamberlin, Steve Vancore, Steve Schale, Scott Arceneaux, Mike Fasano, Joe Perry, Mac Stipanovich, Ryan Tyson, Stafford Jones, Christian Camara, Brad Coker, James Harris, Peter Antonacci, Mark Ferulo, Brad Herold, Bob Graham, Sarah Rumpf, Jeff Johnson, Rick Wilson, Pablo Diaz, Rodney Barreto, Wayne Bertsch, Matthew Isbell, John French, Jason Unger, Michael Albetta, Jim Rimes, Chris Dorworth, Tom Scarritt, Darryl Paulson, Nancy McGowan, Karen Unger, Bud Shorstein, Sally Bradshaw, Mike Hanna, Zach Zachariah, Nick Hansen, Donna Arduin, Tom Tillison, Ana Cruz, Marty Fiorentino, Husein Cumber, Tami Fillyaw, Greg Truax, Paula Dockery, Bob Sparks, Kevin King, Gayne Andrews, Doc Dockery, Susie Wiles, Alan Clendenin, Ron Gunzberger, David Johnson, Amber Stoner, Jon Mills, John Morgan, Robert Coker, Susan Glickman, Brett Doster, Cynthia Henderson, Damien Filer, Al Cardenas, Mike Hightower, Richard Gentry, Ryan Wiggins, Nikki Lowrey, Mike Hamby, Justin Day, Tom Gaitens, John Wehrung, Greg Turbeville, Josh Geise, Gay Gaines, Marty Fiorentino, Jason Altmire, Andrew Weinstein, Seth McKee, Matthew Corrigan, Kelly Cohen, Jason Roth, Henry Kelley, David Bishop, Mark Zubaly, Oscar Anderson, Ron Bilbao, Christian Ziegler, Clarence Mckee.
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